The US approval of Winlevi in acne will be transformational for Cassiopea and marks the first new mode of action for acne in almost 40 years. Ideally, Cassiopea would like to merge with or acquire a specialist dermatology company with an established US sales force and product offering to maximize the long-term value of Winlevi and its pipeline. The US launch starts with a market access launch in September to secure pricing, reimbursement and formulary listing with major healthcare providers, followed by a commercial launch in March 2021. We conservatively forecast global peak sales of CHF 400+ mn for Winlevi with the US accounting for ~75% of sales.

Key catalysts include

  • M&A transaction US derma player or capital increase (H2 2020)
  • Start phase III trials Breezula in male alopecia (H1 2021)
  • Phase II results Breezula in female alopecia (mid 2021)

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